俞力工来稿：评联合国开发计划署的“黄祸论”

万维读者俞力工来稿：6月底，笔者收到一份由联合国开发计划署传来、标题极为醒目的新闻稿，即《中国的贸易势道对亚洲贫穷邻国构成挑战》（见附件）。

该新闻稿的主要内容如下：

中国的崛起以及在外贸领域的长足发展使得周边最不发达国家的经济遭到严重破坏；
这些国家由中国进口的商品急遽增加，而他们对中国的出口却停滞不前；
当中国对欧美的纺织品于2004年大幅增加时，这些贫穷国家却无显著改善；
中国的石油大量进口导致国际油价的暴涨；
通商本身无法确保经济成长或使得最不发达国家脱贫；
亚洲经济能力的提升固然起着牵引作用，但也扩大了亚太地区的不平等；
在全球市场所取得的成就与新机会，意味着对最不发达国家的责任也随之提高。

令人感到文不对题和颇为意外的是，该文也提到目前这些贫穷国家之农业凋零、之成为农产品进口国，主要障碍来自于发达国家的农业补助政策和关税政策。

这份新闻稿看后，即刻让笔者忆及，每次印尼排华总是以“华人垄断经济”为借口。实际上，该国上自飞机，下至汽车，几无一件为海外华人或中国制造。如今，即便中国在外贸上小有成就，但就全球范围看来，充斥国际市场的中国商品基本上仍旧是廉价轻工小商品，而且多是在欧美排除贸易壁垒情况下，才能够像纺织品那样 “突然”大量出口。至于利润最大、对经济发展最为关键的重工业、高科技产品，放眼望去依然多为发达国家所制造。

发达国家为了使其优势成为永恒，除了设置重重贸易壁垒之外，还处心积虑地把仿造与伪造混为一谈，透过“保护专利”和“保护知识产权”剥夺任何一个个人、任何一个社会成长所必须运用的模仿本能（最基本的人权）。如今，当中国刚刚起步、摆脱贫困时，竟然还推动联合国开发计划署的宣传机器，把中国的经济成长形容为“黄祸之源”。

实际上，对发展中国家造成最大伤害的西方农业补助政策，与中国毫无关系可言；国际石油价格的攀升也主要是因为中东、西亚的紧张局势，造成原料价格的普遍提升。至于中国的廉价轻工小商品,严格说来完全没有算计社会成本与生态成本，而其主要利润却为外资企业所囊括。换言之，果真中国的成长对周边弱小国家造成压力，发达国家不止是必须承担主要责任，同时对于给中国留下的两极化与生态问题也得担负部分责任。

简而言之，当前所谓的南北问题、第三世界问题多由19世纪的工业革命和殖民侵略所导致，而随之所建立的国际秩序与贸易条件更是把贫富两个世界之间的差距给固定化和永恒化。尤其恶劣的是，一旦任何一个落后国家试图发奋图强，则总是会有那么一些貌似“权威”的机构，出面告示穷人不得翻身，否则穷者更穷。2006/7/3

www.undprcc.lk/aphdr2006       
 
China’s Trade Dynamism Poses Challenge to Poorer
Asian Neighbours, New UNDP Report Finds

GENEVA, 29 June 2006—The poorest countries of Asia are being out-competed by exports from China and selling little back to China in return, making it harder to benefit from their opening to international trade, says a report published today by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

UNDP’s new Asia-Pacific Human Development Report 2006, Trade on Human Terms, was launched in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, which like most of Asia’s Least Developed Countries (LDCs) has been suffering from a severe trade imbalance with China. Cambodia exported US$30 million only to China in 2004, but imported US$452 million; similarly, Bangladesh exported US$57 million to China, while importing a record US$1.9 billion.

More than 20 percent of imports by these poor countries are from China. This has led to a displacement of domestic industries like leather and footwear, wood products, plastic products, paper and paper products, glass products and cycles and motorcycles.

“China’s stunning economic growth, in so many ways an inspiration to its Asia-Pacific neighbours, is not delivering reciprocal benefits to its Asia-Pacific trading partners – and is in some cases creating difficulties for them,” says the Foreword to the Report. “One of the messages of this report is that success in the global marketplace brings with it new opportunities and responsibilities, especially toward the least developed nations.”

Trade balance of selected LDCs in Asia with China, 2004
 
 Exports to China Imports from China Trade Balance   
Bangladesh $57m $1906m $-1849m   
Cambodia $30m $452m $-422m   
Lao PDR $12m $101m $-89m   
Myanmar $207m $938m $-731m   
Nepal $8m $163m $-155m   
Total for 5 LDCs $314m $3560m $-3246m 
Source: IMF, 2006 (figures in US$ millions)

Following the demise of textile quotas, China also has rapidly expanded its share of textile and clothing exports in the US and EU markets. Chinese textile and clothing exports to these markets increased by more than $15 billion in 2005, while those of Asian LDCs have shown hardly any growth. Countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, Lao PDR and Cambodia, which had benefited from quotas, are increasingly vulnerable to competition from China in export markets.

China’s trade with its Asian neighbours now comprises the bulk of its global trade – but more than 75 per cent of its exchange with the region is with high-income nations such as Japan, the Republic of Korea and Singapore. In part, the Report said, this is because the poorest countries of Asia-Pacific have a very narrow range of exports and cannot meet Beijing’s high-tech and other import needs.

The Report makes a case for special and differential treatment of LDCs’ exports to large markets in Asia, such as China. In addition, it emphasizes the need for cooperation among Asia’s developing countries to maximize benefits to the poorest nations. A case also is made for pooling of the massive foreign exchange reserves that countries such as China hold, in order to finance the higher oil import bill that is causing an oil price “shock” to the region’s poorer countries.

“Trade integration alone is not sufficient to ensure economic growth or poverty alleviation for the Least Developed Countries,” cautioned Hafiz A. Pasha, United Nations Assistant Secretary-General and Director of the United Nations Development Programme Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific.

While trade has been the engine of Asia’s economic dynamism, it also has contributed to increased inequalities in the Asia-Pacific region, not only between countries but also within national borders, the Report shows. The Report was developed by a team of experts from the region under the auspices of the UNDP Regional Centre in Colombo, Sri Lanka.

Because a number of poor Asia-Pacific countries have had problems implementing their agreements with the World Trade Organization (WTO), many are negotiating regional and bilateral trade agreements, the Report also noted.

“The launch of the Report comes at a critical time, with only a few months left before the end-of-year deadline for the completion of the Doha Development Round,” noted UNDP Administrator Kemal Dervis. “We are at the midpoint of the 10-year Brussels Programme of Action for Least Developed Countries and have less than a decade to achieve the targets of the Millennium Development Goals.” The universally endorsed Goals seek to halve poverty by 2015.

Despite Asia’s overall economic growth and rising share of world trade in recent years, the region’s poorest countries have struggled to maintain their share of global commerce, the Report says. The Report emphasizes the economic consequences for Asia’s LDCs of what it says is a neglect of the agricultural sector, noting that Asia is becoming a net food importer, while agricultural subsidies and tariffs policies in advanced economies continue to post major obstacles to farm exports from poor Asian nations.

There are 14 LDCs in the Asia-Pacific region: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Kiribati, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. These countries, home to 260 million people, face severe challenges from poor infrastructure, a high degree of vulnerability to natural disasters, inadequate diversification of the economy, unsatisfactory health and education facilities, and generally low savings rates. Despite some human development improvements, the per-capita annual Gross Domestic Product of Asia-Pacific’s lowest-income nations was only US$375 in 2003, less than half that of even other Asia-Pacific developing countries.

It is time for developed countries to address the vulnerability of the poorest nations in the current global trade environment, the Report says. However, even an ambitious international package can only complement, not substitute for, a global trade deal under the WTO’s struggling Doha Round, the Report stresses. Many observers feel that prospects for such a deal are all but gone. The five-year-long talks currently face a deadline at the end of June for a WTO framework agreement on agricultural market access and industrial tariffs, but are mired in a three-way standoff among the European Union, United States and a group of larger developing countries.

 “It may not be obvious why LDCs would want to gain access to the World Trade Organization – and the further liberalization that this implies,” the Report states. “For most, however, the alternative is worse – marginalization or bilateral control by one or two major powers. The multilateral WTO is still a better option if it offers some consistent basic ground rules.”

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Contacts for media:
Phnom Penh:
Kay Kirby Dorji, email: kay.kirby@undp.org; telephone: (94-11) 452-6400 ext. 245; mobile: (94-77) 317 8556
New Delhi:
Surekha Subarwal, email: surekha.subarwal@undp.org; telephone: (91-11) 2462 8877 ext. 346 
Geneva:
Jean Fabre, email: jean.fabre@undp.org; telephone: (41-22) 917 8541
London:
Chandrika Deshpande, email: chandrika.deshpande@undp.org; telephone: (44-20) 7396 5338, (44-9) 5746 0246
New York:  
Roshni Abayasekara-Karwal, email: roshni.karwal@undp.org; telephone: (1-212) 906 5355; mobile: (1-646-675 2523)
 
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The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) works in 37 countries in the Asia-Pacific region. From 2006 onward, UNDP Asia-Pacific Human Development Reports will become an annual series, providing the region with a new forum for furthering dialogue and constructive debate in support of a regional and global pro-poor agenda.

For more information about UNDP’s work in the Asia-Pacific region, please visit: http://www.undp.org/rbap/